Big Oil Electric Vehicle Projections

News Flash: Big Oil Denies Electric Vehicle Progress

Written by Brian Hicks
Posted February 1, 2012

I read an article this morning that highlighted some data released by BP and Exxon that suggests electric cars will only make up between 4 to 5 percent of the global market in 20 to 30 years.

Now I wonder how BP and Exxon came up with this data? (Insert sarcastic tone here)

Of course, I've also seen my fair share of questionably optimistic studies claiming that in 30 years, electric vehicles will make up 70 percent of the global market. I feel confident that both projections are extremely inaccurate.

The truth is, electric vehicles are likely to claim about 3 percent of the global market in about 10 to 12 years. And by 2042 (30 years from now), electric vehicles will probably represent about 15 percent of the global market.

Now I could be way off, too. But based on the first year sales of the Volt and the LEAF (which were quite impressive, despite what the media bullies and partisan slaves like to claim), the cost of oil production over the next 20 to 30 years, the projected decrease in battery costs, and just a more superior electric vehicle boasting 500-mile ranges and 10-minute quick charges, I find it difficult to believe that in 30 years at least 15 percent of the global vehicle market won't be electric.

In fact, I think 15 percent is actually quite conservative.

Let's face it: The internal combustion engine is an outdated technology. On a technological level, it simply cannot compete with what electric vehicles can offer. Now BP does expect the efficiency of combustion engines to double by 2030. And this would actually be a big deal if it wasn't going to happen around the same time the average range of an electric car will be 500 miles!

Nice try guys. But I think we'll just go ahead and continue to focus on progress.