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Wind Power Investing

Why This Is The Most Lucrative Near-Term Wind Play

By Jeff Siegel
Thursday, July 2nd, 2009

On Wednesday, the vice-president of the Chinese Wind Energy Association announced that China is planning to set up seven wind power bases - with a minimum capacity of 10 GW each - by 2020.

That means each wind power base will generate more than double the power that's expected to be generated at T. Boone Pickens' wind farm in Texas. That's huge!

Certainly for those who invest in turbine manufacturers, this kind of continued support for wind energy in China could prove to be quite lucrative. But this opportunity is not limited to only the Middle Kingdom.

As it stands, the U.S. surpassed Germany as the country with the largest amount of installed wind power capacity in 2008. This, after more than 8,500 megawatts of new wind power increased the nation's cumulative total to more than 25,300 megawatts - representing a growth of about 50 percent.

Based on this growth rate, and assuming long-term policy support (which is now in place), this puts the U.S. on a trajectory to generate 20 percent of our electricity from wind energy by 2030.

This is a massive jump, based on the 1.25 percent that was generated by installed wind projects at the end of 2008 - and a massive opportunity for investors.

Of course, the real catalyst here is Washington.

Secretary of Energy Steven Chu has been very vocal about his support for wind energy development, saying that he believes wind energy is one of our most promising renewable energy sources.

Not surprisingly, the wind energy industry picked up $93 million from the stimulus to further develop wind energy in the U.S.

We also believe that much of the new investment in transmission and infrastructure is being made to facilitate the continued growth of wind in the U.S. After all, the DOE didn't announce that wind energy could produce 20 percent of our electricity by 2030 without taking into account infrastructure development.

The writing is on the wall, my friend. And unless you hate money, there's absolutely no reason you shouldn't be properly positioned in the wind energy market.

Wind Energy Investing: What the Stimulus Holds

When we talk about investing in wind energy, most focus on turbine manufacturers. It's a common and logical connection.

Today, GE (NYSE:GE), Vestas (CPH:VWS), Siemens (NYSE:SI), Suzlon (NSE:SUZLON) and Gamesa (MCE:GAM) are the main suppliers of wind turbines in the U.S.

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And they are likely to remain the major players too.

In fact, Vestas is now in the process of constructing two new manufacturing facilities in Colorado. Both are expected to be operational in 2010.

Gamesa has built four new wind turbine production facilities in the U.S. over the past two years, and Siemens is expected to begin construction on its newest turbine production facility next month in Hutchinson, Kansas. This comes just two years after the company built a rotor blade manufacturing facility in Fort Madison, IA.

Now a couple of years ago, turbine prices were exorbitant...and the down time between the initial order and receipt of the turbines was anywhere between two to four years.

Today, however, thanks to the recession - prices for wind turbines have fallen 18 percent globally. This is primarily because of declining demand and a decrease in the cost of raw materials.

Perhaps this hasn't made turbine manufacturers do cartwheels, but it has allowed some wind farm developers to get better pricing. At least the ones that have the financing to continue their expansion projects.

That being said, once a lot of that stimulus money finally gets funneled through the system later this year, we'll definitely see a lot of those wind farm developments that have been on hold for the past year or so, get back on track. As a result, turbine orders will pick up.

Now some have suggested that it's too risky to count on that stimulus money. But the fact is, that money's already been set aside and is currently being distributed. Granted, the distribution of that money may be too slow for some. But I'd prefer a slower distribution to a bunch of blank checks being thrown around wildly - something Washington is famous for.

In the meantime, we continue to believe the near-term opportunities here will be found primarily in the wind farm developers that are either currently developing new projects, or at least have the necessary financing to begin development in Q3 and Q4, 2009.

In 2010, we'll likely see turbine orders pick up enough to at least start to make a difference when earnings come out.

Of course, everyone has a different take on the timing. But the bottom line is that the world's largest wind turbine manufacturers have already begun building out their manufacturing right here in the U.S. They wouldn't be doing that if there wasn't real opportunity here.

Again...the writing is on the wall.

And whether you believe it's the right thing or not, the government is facilitating the wind energy industry's early growth, not only by offering direct support for research, testing and development. . .but also by building out our nation's electric infrastructure to enable the transmission of new wind power generation.

This is all going down right now.

Even as the climate change and energy debates continue on the Hill - the wind energy industry is continuing to grow and develop at a rapid pace. And in no time at all, wind will go from being considered an alternative form of power generation to simply another form of power generation.

Now as I already mentioned, we see wind developers representing the best near-term opportunities for investors. Particularly those with operations in California. And next week, I'll get into more detail on why that is. I'll also clue you in on a publicly-traded wind energy developer that could easily be one of our biggest winners for 2009.

To a new way of life, and a new generation of wealth...

jeff signature

Jeff

 


Editor's Note: From solar and wind to geothermal and biofuels, Green Chip readers want to know which renewable energy resource will take over where fossil fuels leave off. The answer is...all of the above!

There is no one single solution to today's energy crisis. However, the combination of all viable renewable energy resources, coupled with energy efficiency, conservation and smart grid development will not only lead us to energy independence and a cleaner, more sustainable energy infrastructure — but also to what will soon prove to be the greatest investment opportunity of the 21st Century.







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Comments:

Comment by Just Regular Guy on 2009-07-02
I am still not convinced that Washington is looking out for our best interest. Sure green and clean is the answer or part of the answer long term (renewables)but we have a lot of folks in this country, avarage folks that still depend on old economy energy money for their livleyhood. These are good paying respectible jobs. Bills like Waxley-Markey seem to be so counterproductive. Do these people have their heads in the sand? I mean how many people do you know that work down at the local windfarm... or maybe the local biodiesel plant... That's my point... THERE AIN"T TOO MANY OF THEM... I'm all for GREEN and I'm all about energy independence! But what do you put in your gas tank until it all gets here??? Don't tie these peoples hands behind their back... (oil, gas, coal)get them to help you! They do happen to know a few things about energy. Call it like you see it.
Comment by Ray Nolan on 2009-07-02
I'm a commercial wind energy developer in northwest NH.The data you've provided was accurate,and timely,etc. Keep up the good work and I'll keep coming back to your site! Truth, never hurts! Ray
Comment by Stevie Buckland on 2009-07-03
It's encouraging to read stories like this, maybe there is hope for planet earth. Great article.

Stevie
Comment by Pete Pfeiffer on 2009-07-24
I suspect that the grid, and the form it takes, is the most contentious and problematical.

Questions of "NIMBY", primarily DC or AC. payors and so on, will engender disruptions. Ground faults from solar flares. What base power methods will be favored. Will nuclear PBMRs play a role with their safety and low cost? Hmm.
Comment by Roger on 2009-07-28
The comments below are a wonderful slice of Americana - and "reg guy" sort of has it correct. But, alas, the truth is most have no idea - not even in Washington. The true energy economy - if we can blink beyond profits for even but a moment - will come from Distributed Generation. It's not just the 'Gold Rush" of resources from small far away states. That, for those who study, is antithetical to the "new clean energy economy". What you will see (or your kids will have to discover if you stifle it) will be a very different paradigm. Local power-used locally. Everywhere. Smaller Smart Grids using many new resources will power America-putting literal millions to work. Each area will discover & 'mine' it's regional resources. Future energy will be made, delivered and used in vastly different way than we can dream of today. Giant transmission plans will seem a distant notion left behind. The restriction currently-as the energy industry reels from dramatic loss of sales-is that "profiteers" now linger to encourage "control of the paradigm". While seeking ways to maintain a "central station" marketplace we risk the very opportunity to leap forward toward "DG" - DISTRIBUTED GENERATION. The fear from 'big energy" is that locals would end up owning their own power - leaving the industry having to almost re-invent herself. Alas, while America finds herself at the crossroads, doing what is right and prudent may in fact be too costly.... at least for some. Here is one interesting study from MN which we should all take note of-every state should begin following similar path-happy reading: http://www.newrules.org/sites/newrules.org/files/meetingminnesotares.pdf