Greentech Media and the Prometheus Institute have released their latest global solar photovoltaics demand analysis and forecast.

According to the report, a projected increase in projects of only 13 percent in 2009 is likely to lead to an industry-wide 15 percent revenue decrease this year. The report also noted that...

• Module average selling prices will fall to $2.50 per watt in 2009, and $2.00 per watt in 2010, as financing pressures will force manufacturers to cut prices.

• The industry's market size will contract 15 percent to $12 billion in 2009, and remain flat through 2012.

• Low cost and high performance manufacturers that can retain margins and sell products generating high internal rates of return for project developers will gain an increasingly large share of the shrinking pool of capital.

• Due to the global recession's impact on lending and project finance, demand will only increase by 13 percent to 5 GW in 2009.

• An industry dominated by Asian multicrystalline and CIGS - with solid market share for CdTe and super monocrystalline - will emerge in the near-term. By 2012, it is estimated that thin film modules will comprise 50 percent of incremental demand.

While these numbers are not making too many solar investors do cartwheels, a 13 percent growth rate during a full-blown recession isn't necessarily anything to shrug off. Granted, this is the weakest growth the industry has seen since 1994, but considering the robust growth the industry has enjoyed over the past few years especially, such a slowdown during one of the worst macro environments in recorded history, shouldn't come as much of surprise.

Jeff