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Plug-In Hybrids

Is Toyota's Eco-Reign Over?

By Jeff Siegel
Tuesday, September 2nd, 2008

Have you seen any of those car commercials recently on television?

Nearly every single one of them touts the fuel efficiency of the car they're trying to sell you. A clear indication that this is a top priority for consumers.

The only problem is, those fuel efficiency ratings are pathetic.

17 miles per gallon, 28 miles per gallon, 32 miles per gallon.

Who cares?!!

If you're looking for fuel efficiency, chances are you're looking at a Toyota Prius, as this hybrid powerhouse delivers about 45 miles per gallon.

And it is for this reason that Toyota has been extremely successful at building a reputation for being the "go to" eco-friendly car maker.

For the sake of fuel efficiency, no U.S. automaker comes close.

Since it's debut in 1997, Toyota has sold more than 1 million of its hybrid superstar, and even moved into the number one spot for global auto sales - overtaking GM's long-standing reign.

But last week, Toyota finally felt the same sting U.S. automakers have been feeling over the past few years, after it was announced that the company would be cutting its 2009 vehicle sales forecast by nearly 7 percent due to a slowdown in demand for its larger cars and pickup trucks.

Once again, poor fuel efficiency resulted in failure.

Bottom line: Vehicle purchasing decisions are now being dictated by recessionary realities and higher gas prices. And Toyota - the very company that was smart enough to go full speed ahead with the Prius, while GM and Ford continued to try and force the market, instead of properly preparing for it - is now being forced to make some quick changes. Because you see, this time the suits at GM aren't sitting in big board rooms playing Ego Fetch like they were a decade ago.

And Toyota may soon find itself facing a competitor it hasn't seen in a very long time.

Plug-In Hybrids and The Shape of Electric to Come

Some have questioned how serious GM is about its new Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV), the Chevy Volt. After all, they did kill a potential electric vehicle powerhouse with the EV1 back in 1999.

But times have changed.

Gas is no longer $1.00 a gallon. Most folks now realize the very dangerous implications of maintaining our strong reliance on foreign oil. And climate change is no longer a debatable issue controlled by mocking naysayers.

No, this isn't 1999. And with so much market share at stake, and so much time, energy and capital already committed to the Volt, I don't believe GM will make the same mistake twice.

As it stands, GM says the Volt will be launched in 2010 - less than two years from now. And they've really been laying the groundwork for what looks to be like a potential marketing monsoon.

In fact, I just recently read that the Volt may actually be featured in the next Transformers movie. My friend, if you want to sell a car - put it in the movies. From the Bandit's Trans Am in Smokey and the Bandit to the fleet of Mini Coopers in The Italian Job - that's the kind of smart marketing that can really pop demand numbers.

Point is, GM has a real chance here to lead the way with the next major transformation of auto manufacturing.

Will they pull it off?

I sure hope so. But you can bet the other automakers aren't sitting around, waiting to find out.

Now that Toyota's sitting on massive inventories of pickups and SUVs, it's launching its third-generation Prius and a new hybrid model under the Lexus marquee. Both will debut at the Detroit auto show in January.

Toyota also recently announced that it's speeding up the development of its plug-in hybrid making it available to fleet customers in 2009 - a full year ahead of its earlier plans.

Of course, if it's the PHEV they were telling us about a few months ago, they might as well go back to the drawing board. That PHEV delivers 8 miles in all-electric range before the regular hybrid engine kicks in.

No one's shelling out extra cash for a measly 8 miles in all-electric range.

And the sad thing is, there are conversion companies that can add a 30-mile all-electric range to the Prius right now. Not two years from now. So why they're screwing around with 8 miles is beyond me.

Reps from Toyota also said that they would now be speeding up the development of all-electric vehicles with hopes of mass-producing them in the early part of the next decade. The company did end road tests for the all-electric E-Com in 2006. So it will be interesting to see if those eventually find a home on showroom floors

These are basically mini-cars that wouldn't be worth much on our highways, primarily due to maximum speeds of less than 70 mph. But they could gain real traction in urban areas if the price is right.

Don't sleep on Nissan either.

Nissan says it will have an electric vehicle on the market by 2010. The current prototype boasts a range of 62 to 75 miles. For most folks in the U.S. who drive 29 miles per day or less to get to and from work (according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics), an all-electric, NO-GAS-REUIRED vehicle could also provide a catalyst for a real transition in personal transportation.

Mitsubishi's also trying to get a piece of this action with its i-MiEV.

Mitsubishi claims the i-MiEV can travel 100 miles on one charge.

The first 2,000 will be produced next year. And Mitsubishi is currently working with Pacific Gas & Electric and Southern California Edison to test the i-MiEV.

PHEVs: Back to the Batteries

There's no doubt that plug-in hybrid development is getting into full swing.

These guys finally figured out that most people don't get paid millions of dollars to make bad decisions in corporate offices in Detroit or Japan. Most people work hard for a lot less, and can't afford to spend hundreds of dollars a week to fill the tank. And that's why we're not only going to see pretty much every single vehicle on the market be a hybrid vehicle within the next 10 years - but a good portion of them will be either all-electric vehicles or PHEVs.

It may be GM that nails it with the Volt, or it maybe another automaker altogether. Perhaps even one of those smaller firms, like Tesla or Phoenix Motorcars. Two companies that have already developed and sold all-electric vehicles.

But one thing's for sure.

The company that can provide the cheapest, lightest and most efficient high-performance batteries to fuel these vehicles will be the companies that make investors an absolute fortune.

We've discussed a number of these companies in these pages before. From those that are small, thinly-traded stocks, like Electrovaya (TSX:EFL) and Electro Energy (NASDAQ:EEEI) to new IPOs, like A123 Systems.

But it's still too early to pick a clear winner in this space.

The fact is, there will probably be more than one, as I find it highly unlikely that only one high-performance battery manufacturer will be able to deliver the quantities that will be needed to keep up with demand.

In any event, we will continue to monitor this sector closely, and report on any new developments along the way.

If you'd like to read more about these vehicles, and the companies we're watching now, check out our free report, Plugged-In Profits.

To a new way of life, and a new generation of wealth...

jeff signature

Jeff



Editor's Note: From solar and wind to geothermal and biofuels, Green Chip readers want to know which renewable energy resource will take over where fossil fuels leave off. The answer is...all of the above!

There is no one single solution to today's energy crisis. However, the combination of all viable renewable energy resources, coupled with energy efficiency, conservation and smart grid development will not only lead us to energy independence and a cleaner, more sustainable energy infrastructure — but also to what will soon prove to be the greatest investment opportunity of the 21st Century.







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Comments:

Comment by Terry on 2008-09-02
Hi

I like most of your letters for their forward looking perspective. You are so right with allot of things and most of your observations. Occasionally you make me laugh with some of your conclusions. Your focus on batteries is as misguided as looking in the rear view mirrow as you drive forward. The future is the release of abundant electricity on demand from magnetic generators.

1. There are magnetic motors like those in your computer that release about 20 times more mechanical energy than they consume electric energy.

2. Then there are magnetic generators that release may times more electrical energy than they consume in mechanical energy. These magnetic generators do not have spinning magnets or conductors and effectively move the magnetic field in a conductor releasing a large amount of electricity without changing any magnetic fields.

The combination of magnetic motors driving magnetic generators is the key to abundant electrical energy that can drive vehicles just like they now provide power in stationary applications.

Terry
Comment by peter Joseph on 2008-09-03
Why not focus on the source of lithium. I understand the largest mine, and they are few and far between, is located in south America, stock symbol SQM. I do not own it at this time.
Comment by J A Forbes on 2008-09-03
With all the talk about the advantages of electric cars, there seems to be very little discussion of the fact that these cars use electricity when they're plugged in. Many areas use fossil fuels to generate electricity, negating the supposed reduction in greenhouse gasses, and power costs are rising continually with the rise in the feedstocks to run the electricity generation. What's the sense in this? Any perceived savings from moving to an electric car will disappear with rising power costs. Why dom't all the articles on vehicles like the Volt enter into a discussion of the costs to operate? On a related matter, the design trend, in attempting to reduce fuel consumption, is tending towards lighter, smaller passenger vehicles. However, transport trucks are as big as ever. Thus, I'm very nervous driving in smaller cars on major highways, and I'm fearful we will experience am upward trend in highway injuries and deaths because the smaller, lighter shells offer less protection in the event of a crash.
Comment by Levi on 2008-09-03
Good article, but quit harping on the climate change issue!! Yes the climate is changing, as it has for billions of years. It is slowly getting warmer, but the hysterical bleating from a biased part of the scientific community (ie "we need more research funding!!"), and the cynical use of this misunderstood issue by our beloved politicians is not helping us understand the longer term issues we need to find solutions to. Clearly, the solid research done over the last 20 years clearly shows that "greenhouse gases" are not a principle causal of the warming effect, the natural evolution of our climate is what we need to understand. Carbon capture, carbon footprint etc are red herrings!! All the efforts to reduce carbon emmissions will have no real effect over the long term, so do your research and get off the pot. Don't support hucksterism in the marketplace, and "the sky is falling" political quacks who only want to take advantage of the ignorance that abounds on this subject!!
Comment by Philip Biggins on 2008-09-03
There is not enough hydro for present requirements so imagine if everyone had an electric vehicle to plug in as well!!! There are solutions right now to the problem and it is not electricity , it is WATER or HHO gas to be precise! One can easily improve by at least 40%+ the mileage they get by "enhancing" the fuel with HHO gas, fuel preheating, PCV improvements and a few minor changes . Electric vehicles are a joke at best. IMHO
Comment by Philip Biggins on 2008-09-03
There is not enough hydro for present requirements so imagine if everyone had an electric vehicle to plug in as well!!! There are solutions right now to the problem and it is not electricity , it is WATER or HHO gas to be precise! One can easily improve by at least 40%+ the mileage they get by "enhancing" the fuel with HHO gas, fuel preheating, PCV improvements and a few minor changes . Electric vehicles are a joke at best. IMHO
Comment by Ivan Hills on 2008-09-03
Personally, I'll keep my 1999 Camry at 25 mpg ubtil it can be replaced with an electric/CNG (or LNG)car. I read somewhere that the Chinese are working on small nuclear power engines. Might herald the return of the steam engine (as in Stanley)
Comment by Goodgojuice on 2008-09-03
Good article about where personal transportation is going. In all probablity, there is going to be a varity of mixes of powertrains available to the consumer in the years to come. Natural gas, biodiesel, battery electric, plug-in-hybrids (electric & gasoline/alcohol combinations), hydrogen electric, or maybe hydrogen gas injected/natural gas/ gasoline/alcohol multi-fuel engines, or any of the exotic magnetic motor, or multi-chambered rotary engines, steam, compressed air???? My bet goes to the electric powertrain. Battery efficiencies will continue to improve.
You need to know that the Chevy Volt is an extended range electric vehicle; electric motors are the means of power. There is an on-board generator powered by a gasoline engine that will provide power to electric motors and recharge the batteries once the battery range has been exceded, therefore, no drain on the power grid. The new Saturn Vue will be a plug-in hybrid. Both vehicles will reach the market in nearly the same time frame.
Comment by Al on 2008-09-06
Hybrids are one way to go but they still use a gasoline engine and need a powerplant to charge the batteries. What about hydrogen and natural gas? We need to build nuclear and cleancoal augmented with wind/solar powerplants. That will allow us to move natural gas and/or hydrogen based fuels toward transportation. Real question is which will get us there first and which will be the long term solution - and what will it take to get a car company to think out of the box and long term? So far Honda seems to be one of the leaders. GM is moving in that direction but only after someone else paves the way.
Comment by Fred Weber on 2008-09-12
I think that GM's future success will depend more on a combo of durability and ergonomics - not so much the mileage. ASSUMING fuel efficiency is similar, customers will want a car that lasts longer (fewer repairs) and handles better. Recall, the original reason people bought foreign [when gas was $1/gal] WASN"T mileage, but because American vehicles didn't last.