New Data Suggest Massive Growth for Electric Vehicle Market
Modern Energy Roundup - October 2, 2012
By Jeff Siegel 2012-10-02
We got some new data from Pike Research this morning about growth rates for electric vehicle (EV) charging equipment.
According to Pike's forecasts, global sales of EV charging equipment will grow from 200,000 units sold in 2012 to nearly 2.4 million in 2020, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 37%.
But I thought EVs were dead, right?
Oh, how the EV haters will be quick to ignore, trivialize or spin this latest research. But for those of us who truly understand the economic, social and national security benefits of EV integration, we're happy to see such a strong growth projection.
Now according to the folks over at Green Car Congress, who provided a very concise review of the report, the United States will be the largest single market for EV charging equipment from 2012 to 2020, with North America growing from 66,000 units in 2012 to 626,000 units in 2020. Much of this growth is expected to come from California, New York, Florida, Texas, Washington and Illinois.
Pike also noted that wireless charging is expected to deploy next year, albeit in small numbers. However, the data suggest strong growth with the market moving from 3,000 units sold in 2013 to 280,000 units sold annually by 2020, thereby representing a CAGR of 91 percent.
Of course, while these numbers are certainly positive, the transition to electrified transportation will still be a fairly long one. I believe that by the end of this decade, EVs will really only represent between one to 1.5% of the total US vehicle market.
However, around 2020, with gas prices well into the $5 and $6 range, battery costs dropping dramatically and all-electric ranges for EVs exceeding 300 miles per charge, this transition will really begin to pick up speed.
Make no mistake about it, my friends, the future of personal transportation will be electrified. In fact, there's a great piece that Bill Destler, President of the Rochester Institute of Technology recently wrote that provides a laundry list of reasons why, within 50 years, a majority of our cars will be electric.
You can read the entire piece here.