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Long-term Positives for the Green Sector Far Outweigh Recent Blip

Green Chip's Weekend Edition

By Nick Hodge
Saturday, January 23rd, 2010

Welcome to the Green Chip Review Weekend Edition — our insights from the week in everything alternative and cleantech, as well as links to our most-read Green Chip Review and sister publication articles.  


Stocks slid this week on multiple concerns, ranging from a pullback in Chinese lending... to a new Obama bank plan... to missed blue chip earnings.

Closer to cleantech, a German solar subsidy scare and the realization that an energy bill won't be possible this year added to the selling sentiment. Of course, I've been telling you we wouldn't pass meaningful legislation this year.

The main reason an energy bill won't pass is an overambitious agenda. You can't tackle health care and energy in the same year. But the election of Scott Brown has given the Dems one less vote, and has already led House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer to announce the bill could be split in two.

I think cleantech stocks will have a good year anyway.

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Nonetheless, stocks sank as the negative news startled the masses. And after such a sustained bull run, there were plenty of profits to be taken.

A look at a weekly chart for major wind, solar, and smart grid ETFs tells the story:


Cleantech  ETFs

The German solar subsidy cut was probably the biggest news of the week... though the market reacted in entirely the wrong way. First of all, a subsidy cut is a sure side of industry maturation, which is a long-term bullish indicator with short-term pangs.

The cut will mostly affect European producers, since their prices are higher than manufacturers in Asia. They'll either have to cut prices or buy cells and modules from China. As such, Chinese solar stocks should've bounced on the news. The opposite reaction has created buying opportunity.

In fact, I'm seeing good buys in multiple cleantech sectors. So be sure not to fall victim to shortsightedness. The long-term positives far outweigh the blip we're experiencing this week.

There have been increased applications for initial public offerings (IPOs), which points to confidence in the public market's ability to provide funding. Chinese turbine blade maker HT Blade, Indian PV cell maker Indosolar, Chinese polysilicon producer Daqo, and wafer maker JinkoSolar have all said they'll test their luck on major exchanges.

And it seems investors are constantly forgetting the great growth ahead for the cleantech industry. Renewable energy capacity has only made a small dent in developed nations. Continued growth in the U.S. and Europe, coupled with leap-frogging in India and China — where billions need energy and water — will lead to several doublings over the next few decades.

We've talked about cleantech growth in China for weeks on end now. This week, India announced new rules for trading clean energy certificates with the aim of "doubling green power generation to 25,000 MW in four year."

Other long-term bullishness came domestically, when the DOE's National Renewable Energy Laboratory released a report saying wind energy could power 20% of the eastern grid. The report, which came out this week, said the goal would require a $90 billion investment in turbines and transmission. (You can catch that article below.)

That alone would create investment opportunities. But wind growth isn't limited to the eastern U.S.; it's expanding all across the globe. And if $90 billion seems unrealistic, consider Canada. A $6.7 billion deal was announced in Ontario this week to build four wind and solar power clusters with a capacity of 2,000 MW.

So don't let a few bad days in the market get you down... or allow you to question the future of cleantech. Deals are getting done, projects are being completed, and there is plenty of growth ahead.

We're still very much in the early stages of this energy transition, and those that take note early, support the transition, and invest... those folks will be rewarded accordingly for years.

You can catch up on the rest of the Green Chip's coverage below.

Call it like you see it,

Nick

 

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Editor's Note: From solar and wind to geothermal and biofuels, Green Chip readers want to know which renewable energy resource will take over where fossil fuels leave off. The answer is...all of the above!

There is no one single solution to today's energy crisis. However, the combination of all viable renewable energy resources, coupled with energy efficiency, conservation and smart grid development will not only lead us to energy independence and a cleaner, more sustainable energy infrastructure — but also to what will soon prove to be the greatest investment opportunity of the 21st Century.





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