“My God,” I said to myself as I peered over the rim of my sunglasses and through my passenger side window.
I was headed due south on I-95, a stone’s throw from the Florida-Georgia border.
The thick, hot air was laced with a plume of churning black smoke and soot. The gaps between the treetops were (and probably still are) flickering with a dull, warm, orange glow. Like jack-o’-lantern eyes.
Those damned wildfires had me in quite a predicament--stay the course or improvise?
With people being burned out of house and home and over 300,000 acres reduced to ash, eh, what the hell, dead reckoning my way around the flames seemed like the reasonable thing to do.
On my three-hour detour I got to thinking about my old environmental science classes and lectures on fire cycles.
You see, every now and again enough pine needles accumulate, and one day, BAM! Instantaneous combustion, the fire sweeps across the dry land like a man being chased by a yeti and all the animals head for the nearest gopher tortoise hole.
The heat opens the pine cones, the seeds are dispersed and the sandy soil becomes a hodge podge of tree-growin’ goodness.
Voilà, a new generation begins.
Now I’m sure you’re wondering how this applies to the hybrid vehicle markets. But bear with me, please, this is going somewhere, I promise.
Anyhow, I got into town (Stuart, Fl.) about 7 p.m. and quickly settled in on the front porch, poured a whiskey neat and talked with my good buddy about what we should use as targets for some ol’ fashioned back yard plinking. (When in Rome.)
Then I started telling him about the fire and regurgitated the cyclical story as told above.
Steve nodded, spat out the corner of his mouth, took a slug from the Beam jug and said, “Yup, cyclical, just like government and economy.”
“Que?”
“Well, the way I see it [spit] you have fear, growth, then industry. People won’t do anything till they’re scared. And governments won’t do jack squat till the people get scared. That’s because scared people are just as dangerous to policy as a cat is to a mouse.”
“Well, I guess you’re right, Steve, but what about those people who aren’t quite all there? You know, the ones that don’t pay attention or just don’t care. That’s just too much of a variable for a consistent cycle.”
“Fear is inevitable, Field, don’t play dumb. Sure, the fear isn’t always caused by the same thing, but it’s always there. Take that hybrid-green-environmental stuff you always ramble on about. Not only is it playing off the fear of gas prices and pollution, it’s turned sexy. Now, if those politicians up in D.C. aren’t afraid of drought, famine and even more war, they’re afraid of not being viewed as sexy.”
“Hot dog! You’re on to something, man.”
“Hot dog on a bun you mean, Field.”
It was at that moment I began to think Steve should’ve put down the jug a couple of gulps ago, but what he said next put it all into perspective.
“You take the hot dog, pretty good on its own . . . but you know it’s greasy, has a funny smell and looks kind of creepy. So, you wrap it in a bun to make it more appetizing. This global warming stuff is pretty nasty but it’s wrapped in sex appeal, much more palatable, and that’s why I have those energy saving light bulbs. I’m scared of the bill and Vicky [his lovely wife] likes them because Vogue has some celeb’ talking about doing their part. That means I’m going to have to buy a lot more of ’em.”
Whiskey does some wonderful things to Steve.
That old boy is spot on. We’re at the peak of fear right now, for good reason.
We’re staring down a double-barreled elephant gun loaded with global warming and oil addiction. And we’re about to get our heads taken clean off.
I mean, on May 15 a scientist pointed out a lovely satellite photo that shows huge clouds of dust and city pollution sweeping across the Pacific from China to California.
And if that doesn’t get people a bit worried, the 43% rise in gas prices since January is starting to break the resolve of even the most stoic of peak oil and global warming detractors.
And it doesn’t really matter either way anymore when it comes to this market. With sexy smothered fear, hybrids and electric cars are reaching Gucci status with the hipsters from L.A. to N.Y.C.
So, now we know people are scared, whether because of the environmental consequences of consumption or because they aren’t “cool” like Leonardo DiCaprio, Tom Hanks, George Clooney and other celebs who all drive hybrid or electric cars.
OK, that’s the fear part of the cycle. Now we’re at the growth stage, and things are really starting to take off.
On the government side of the growth, righties and lefties are hailing green energy and transportation as their darling savior.
Bush has plans, through an executive order, to reduce gasoline consumption by 20% in ten years. Clinton has started a movement in 40 cities to cut carbon emissions and has raised $1 billion to help it along.
The U.S. Department of Energy, through the Climate Change Technology Development Strategic Plan, has set aside roughly $3 billion in federal spending for climate technology research, development, demonstration, and deployment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase economic growth.
The U.S. Department of Energy has also matched $14 million from the United States Advanced Battery Consortium (USABC), bringing the grand total up to $28 million.
So where does this money come into play on the economic side of the growth stage?
If you’re smart, just check your portfolio.
Drive trains, motors, electrical components, carbon fibers . . . the list goes on and on.
And the companies that tapped this market early, before it was scary or sexy, have delivered, and will continue to deliver the goods for savvy investors.
Keep your hopes in the future, but your sense in the present,
Field Palmer









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