Electric Vehicle Investing

Something Every Investor Needs to Know about Electric Vehicles

By
Thursday, July 8th, 2010

It's no secret that we're huge advocates of electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles.

I've personally been writing about this stuff for nearly a decade now, providing coverage on electric vehicle-related companies like:

  • Ener1 (NASDAQ: HEV)

  • Maxwell Technologies (NASDAQ: MXWL)

  • UQM Technologies (AMEX: UQM)

  • Enova Systems (AMEX: ENA)

  • Electrovaya (TSX: EFL)

  • Johnson Controls (NYSE: JCI)

  • and A123 Systems (NASDAQ: AONE)

And I maintain that electric vehicles (EVs) can help us significantly reduce our oil consumption, and if done right, provide millions of jobs for hard-working Americans.

However, despite the EV enthusiasm we're seeing today in the marketplace, I don't believe that electric vehicles can realistically achieve much more than a 3%-4% market penetration within the next ten years. And that's being very optimistic.

Now this has nothing to do with demand, or the reliability of the vehicles or the battery technology...

In fact battery technology is absolutely going to advance by leaps and bounds over the next decade.

Of course, I realize that battery technology remains to be a major sticking point for those who don't believe that EVs have much of chance. And in all fairness, there are still many challenges ahead when it comes to high performance battery technology.

But it's one thing to objectively recognize technological barriers early on, and work to overcome those barriers.

It's another to dismiss an entire market altogether because the technology is still developing.

If we all adhered to that mentality, we'd still be using typewriters and rotary phones.

That being said, the need to reduce our oil consumption is an urgent one. We don't have time to wait around for an electric car with a 500-mile range and quick charging capabilities at gas stations.

With each passing day — and each barrel consumed — we become more and more vulnerable.

And that's why we're so focused on capitalizing on every potential (and responsible) solution to this problem.

From electric vehicles and next-generation biofuels (using non-food crops) to mass transit, high-speed rail and more walkable communities, we need to responsibly embrace it all.

I would even argue that the continued development of modern-day internal combustion and conventional hybrid vehicles can also play a crucial role in our quest to curb our appetite for oil.

How's 1.8 billion barrels grab ya?

I thought it was disturbingly amusing last year when we watched a handful of bureaucratic dolts on the Hill fighting against the increase of the corporate average fuel economy standard (CAFE) to 35.5 mpg.

Why would you fight against something that helps us curb our oil consumption?

Why would you fight against something that is expected to save 1.8 billion barrels of oil over the life of all new passenger vehicles sold during the five years between 2012 and 2016?

That's more than our 2008 combined imports from Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Libya, and Nigeria.

Regardless, here we are today — with modern hybrid and conventional ICE vehicles on the market already exceeding, or coming pretty damn close to, those mandated CAFE standards.

Take a look at this top ten list of most fuel-efficient cars of 2010, as reported by the EPA:

  1. Toyota Prius Hybrid – 51/48 mpg

  2. Ford Fusion Hybrid and Mercury Milan Hybrid – 41/36 mpg

  3. Honda Civic Hybird – 40/45 mpg

  4. Honda Insight Hybrid – 40/43 mpg

  5. Lexus HS250h Hybrid – 35/34

  6. Nissan Altima Hybrid – 35/33 mpg

  7. Ford Escape Hybrid, Mazda Tribute Hybrid, Mercury Mariner Hybrid – 33/41 mpg

  8. Smart fortwo – 33/41 mpg

  9. Toyota Camry Hybrid – 33/34 mpg

  10. Lexus RX450h Hybrid – 32/28 mpg

And it's only going to get better.

In fact Nissan (NSANY.PK) announced on Tuesday that its latest hybrid offering — a hybrid version of the Fuga sedan — will likely be between 60% and 90% more fuel-efficient than the gas-powered model.

While it won't give you as many miles per gallon as the Prius, Nissan has upped the ante with new operational and design changes that could be integrated into the next generation of hybrids.

For instance, Nissan's hybrid system is about 66 pounds lighter than Toyota's system. Nissan's model also uses one electric motor, whereas Toyota uses two.

And according to Nissan chief engineer Koichi Hayasaki, beyond providing significant weight reduction, these changes provide cost reduction, too, as the Nissan system is just simpler than Toyota's.

As a side note, Toyota is often used as the base comparison, as it is the most fuel-efficient hybrid on the road today.

Everything from advances in battery technology to basic design changes to lighter weight materials will continue to be incorporated into new hybrid vehicles as we move forward..

And with these advances, we will see continued progress in efficiency, continued reductions in oil consumption, and continued opportunities for Green Chip investors.

To a new way of life, and a new generation of wealth...

jeff signature 

Jeff

P.S. Nearly every new hybrid coming to market after next year will be using lithium-ion batteries. But lithium-ion batteries are also being used for utility-scale storage — allowing solar and wind to potentially become providers of baseload power. It's just like coal, but cleaner and cheaper. To learn more about lithium-ion storage — as well as 10 other storage technologies — check out our free Energy Storage Report.


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Editor's Note: From solar and wind to geothermal and biofuels, Green Chip readers want to know which renewable energy resource will take over where fossil fuels leave off. The answer is...all of the above!

There is no one single solution to today's energy crisis. However, the combination of all viable renewable energy resources, coupled with energy efficiency, conservation and smart grid development will not only lead us to energy independence and a cleaner, more sustainable energy infrastructure — but also to what will soon prove to be the greatest investment opportunity of the 21st Century.







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Comments:

Comment by Charles Ivie on 2010-07-08
This article strikes very close to the mark. While iprovements in battery technology will be a major factor in the market acceptance of electric vehicles there remain other problems to be solved. Two of the greatest of these are generation and delivery of electrical power.

As director of research and development of an alternate energy company I struggle with these issues on a daily basis.

A critical point will be reached when the weight and size of an electrical storage system approaches that of gasoline for the same amount of energy. When this happens the electric vehicle will become truly competetive with the internal combusiton engine. I suspect that this development is less than five years away.
However, the energy still must be generated and then delivered to the battery charging facility. This will be true whether this is in the home or work place or in the electrical equivalent of a gas station. This means that a whole new energy delivery infrastructure must be created. How that may be done in the current political climate remains a question that must be answered.
Comment by harold segelstad on 2010-07-08
You and I are kindred spirits and I greatly enjoy your commentaries. But I am very dismayed that you completely ignore the most fuel efficient car-my VW TDI turbodiesel.Since purchase in 1976 I have had carefully documented mileage of 44 to 50 mpg and the new ones now are a bit better. You should not ignore advanced diesel technology or diesel-electric hybrids.Respectfully, Harold Segelstad
Comment by Loyal Park on 2010-07-08
I think you are pessimistic about the future market penetration for electric vehicles. Electric vehicles are going to catch on especially for families with two vehicles - one a gas model and the 2nd an electric.

Judging by the reservations for the Nissan LEAF, I expect to see over 10% in 10 years.

Remember the movie "Whatever happened to the electric car?" People loved them and were sad to have to turn them back to GM.
Comment by Richard Zander on 2010-07-08
Electric vehicles are fine but you still have to get the electricity from another energy source and there is an environmental impact to whatever source you look to. People tend to forget this.
Comment by Gerald Sutliff on 2010-07-08
Dear Jeff,
I continue to amazed by the inability of ZAP cars to get public notice here in the U.S. Somebodies are noticing because the stock has doubled over this week. Also ZAP has access to China's market thru its partnership with a Chinese company. (Yes, a own number of shares in [ZAAP].)
Comment by Peter on 2010-07-08
The sustainability is PVEV SEE http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/solar-charged_vehicle

Regards.
Comment by Vince Fodera on 2010-07-09
Electric vehicle engines transmit torque to wheels; this very viable method is standard operation, regardless of the fuel required-electricity, gas or deisel. Movement is obtained by 'traction' the result of which is 'adhesive friction'. A propeller provides movement to an airplane on a runway; "atmospheric pressure" is thrusting the aircraft forward.
Comment by Richard Filipowicz on 2010-07-09
For the life of me I can not see how electric powered vehicles will reduce mans use of oil eg. convert the enegy contained in oil to heat energy to create steam, further convert steam energy to mechanical energy, thereafter convert mechanical energy to electrical energy finally transmit the electrical energy through the grid to the end consumer. 4 conversions and with each conversion there are losses to be factored.......do me a favour someone.

There are in the short term no really viable alternatives to petroleum powered vehicles/transport and I do stress in the short term. With respect to EV transport, they may possibly be economically viable if greener more sustainable forms of energy are developed but how long to develope on a mass scale eludes me as this population of this planet continues to rise on an exponential rate.

In the longer term, the solution (in my opinion) is if nature steps in and a few billion people die (I could be one of them) which should reduce our dependance and the use of oil.
Comment by Nat Bruce Wheatley B Com M Env Sci FCPA FACS on 2010-07-09
Electric Cars are great - it is now practicable to just swap batteries at a service station if making a long trip. But Australia is the land of the races Darwin to Adelaide of solar panel driven cars. Last race averaged over 60Km/Hr. Fighter Jet aerodynamics is most un-necessary and cars in Australia are mainly parked outside at home or at destination. Solar recharge is OK!
Comment by James Nolan B.E. on 2010-07-10
You article on energy storage overlook the largest technology for storage of energy i.e Pumped Hydro Electric systems PHES.The present world installed storage is approx, 127,000 MW-hrs. The U.S alone has 19 GW's and Japan 24Gw's of installed capacity.
The market is expected to grow by 60% over the next 10 years.
With most freshwater PHES sites now developed or being developed the market is turning to Seawater PHES.SPHES.
These plants will be used for the storage of mainly wind energy produced in the night time and discharged during peak periods instead of gas fired peak lobbing units.
It is the only viable large scale storage system available at present.
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