According to a Pike Research report, sales of electric two-wheelers in the Asian market could reach 65 million annually by 2018, with China being the dominant force.
Electric two-wheelers (e-scooters, e-motorcycles and e-bicycles) could reach a cumulative level of 355 million units by 2018 in China alone while cumulative sales in the region could hit more than 381 million.
The majority of these electric two-wheelers will be powered by lead-acid batteries, but lithium ion batteries will make up a smaller but growing part of the equation. While lead-acid will most likely be the battery of choice for China, the Pike report indicates lithium ion sales will grow due to the eventual reduction in cost.
While China will stick to the lead-acid battery, lithium ion batteries will flourish in Japan. The Pike report estimates lithium ion battery-equipped e-scooters will reach 37% by 2018 while virtually 100% of e-motorcycles will be outfitted with lithium ion batteries by 2015.
Other key findings in the report include:
E-Scooters: China will make up the vast majority of the Asia Pacific e-scooter market (more than 15.4 million annual sales in 2018), followed by India (more than 1.1 million units in 2018). Taiwan will experience the highest 2012-2018 CAGR (26.7%) in Asia Pacific for e-scooters.
E-Motorcycles: The e-motorcycle market in Asia Pacific is expected to be small compared with e-scooters, due to cost.
E-Bicycles: Pike expects India to be the second-largest market behind China for e-bicycles by 2018. The country will likely follow demand in China for scooter-style electric bicycles (SSEBs) with sealed lead-acid (SLA) batteries.