Ecosystem Investing

A $2 Trillion Discovery that May Piss You Off

By
Monday, July 19th, 2010

Over the weekend, I did an interview on a radio talk show.

Unfortunately, you'll never hear it.

It's my own fault though.  I dropped the "f bomb" a few too many times.

That's right — and I have no plans to stop using it, either...

Free Market!

I bet you thought I was going to say something else, didn't you?

Either way, "free market" must have been just as offensive as the other "f" word, because every time I started talking about how a real free market would validate the economic advantages of many energy alternatives, I was cut off.

You see, the guy who was interviewing me essentially just wanted to debate. And I was fine with that.

Happy to do it, actually...

The only problem is that he (and so many like him) don't really want to hear the truth about energy.

They're completely satisfied buying into the cheap energy illusion — feeding into the hype that alternatives can only survive with government support, never once acknowledging the massive subsidies that oil and coal receive every single year.

Truth be told, I'd be happy to do away with subsidies altogether. That means both alternatives and fossil fuels never see a single taxpayer dime ever again.

If you truly value a free market, then certainly such a suggestion shouldn't be a problem.

Now we've discussed the subsidy issue in these pages before, so I won't rehash it here.

(Though if you'd like to see how fossil fuels landed $72 billion in subsidies during the same time renewables received $29 billion between 2002 and 2008, you can see the analysis here.)

Of course, $72 billion is nothing compared to an additional...

$2 Trillion unaccounted for every single year!

I've been in the investment publishing game for 16 years now.

In that time, I've made a lot of friends (investors who made a ton of dough in alternative energy), and I've pissed off a lot people (folks who use my analysis of alternative energy as an excuse to spout off about liberals, socialism, and those pesky treehuggers).

If you're the latter, you may want to stop reading now.

Last week, U.N. States proposed the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), a new body that seeks to advise on valuing nature and conservation targets.

Now before you roll your eyes and write this off as some environmental rant, consider that the biodiversity and ecosystem services (what we define as natural capital) that are being discussed have more than just an aesthetic value.

This stuff has real economic value. According to U.N. reports, the world's natural capital is valued at $2 trillion-$4.5 trillion a year. And yet these are figures that are not being included in economic measurements or GDP.

If the liquidation of natural capital was figured into the equation when measuring performance (as it should be), how cheap would oil and coal really be?

The European Commission issued its Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity report (TEEB) last week in an effort to find a way to properly measure the value of natural capital.

Here's what Angela Cropper, Deputy Executive Director of the U.N. Environment Programme had to say at press conference for the launch of the TEEB:

Biodiversity is disappearing at up to 1,000 times the natural rate, and ecosystems are functioning less and less effectively.

About 60 per cent of ecosystems have been degraded or used unsustainably, including provisioning (food and fibre) and regulating services (climate, flood, water purification).

Around 50 countries face moderate or severe water stress.

By 2030, it is thought that water scarcity could cut agricultural harvests by 30 per cent.

If numbers or statistics we've heard today, either about biodiversity loss or the value of ecosystems seem at first too abstract or too distant, there can be no denying that we are already feeling the effects of biodiversity loss: rising food prices, a lack of once commonly available fish, some of the worst droughts in a decade affecting exports basic foods and in the worst cases, causing severe food shortages and widespread hunger.

Of course, we don't need a press release to tell us something that we're seeing in our own backyard right now...

Thanks for the case study, BP!

According to economist Pavan Sukhdev, the BP debacle underscores the need for a change in how natural capital is measured and valued. He argues that had a holistic economic assessment been required before drilling was allowed, the potential liability might have motivated BP to take more stringent safety measures.

Sukhdev also notes the $20 billion ponied up by BP for compensation and cleanup, but asks the question, "... what about the cost to the economy of lost utility — eco-tourism loss, fisheries stocks that represent future losses to industry, the inability to fish in the area?"

The economic loss caused from this single disaster will dwarf $20 billion.

From the death of mangroves which serve as nurseries for commercial marine species and protect against hurricane damage... To the health effects that will come to fruition as we are forced to remember that it's a long and nasty fall when you're at the top of the food chain... The grand total from this disaster will not be a small one.

Of course, it'll take decades before we'll really be able to get an honest assessment. So I can't even imagine how one could put a valid price tag on it now.

Hell, we still don't even know how this whole thing's going to play out. That whole area out there in the Gulf seems like a ticking time bomb.

We got confirmation this morning that a seep has been found near the well, and anomalies have been noticed at the well-head. Scientists also remained concerned about large amounts of methane escaping through cracks in the sea floor.

This is far from over, my friends.

So lets drop the partisan rhetoric, and consider, honestly... Is there an economic advantage to using alternatives to oil?

You better "f-ing" believe it!

To a new way of life, and a new generation of wealth...

jeff signature 

Jeff


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Editor's Note: From solar and wind to geothermal and biofuels, Green Chip readers want to know which renewable energy resource will take over where fossil fuels leave off. The answer is...all of the above!

There is no one single solution to today's energy crisis. However, the combination of all viable renewable energy resources, coupled with energy efficiency, conservation and smart grid development will not only lead us to energy independence and a cleaner, more sustainable energy infrastructure — but also to what will soon prove to be the greatest investment opportunity of the 21st Century.







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Comments:

Comment by Les Hamasaki on 2010-07-19
Cap and Trade is a strategy to put a price on free energy from the sun and wind as well as other renewable resources. It is a user fee for polluting the planet, e.g., sewer charges and solid waste tipping fee.

In our economic system we have no incentive to use free energy, until now with PV panels and wind turbines, etc. Unless we put a fee on the externalities caused by coal and oil,we will be frogs in a pot with the water slowly heating up.

We need a simple explanation for "Cap and Trade" to convince the public and our leaders that we must pass an Energy Bill ASAP or we will be all cooked frogs.
Comment by Ron Shook on 2010-07-19
Jeff,

Nice blog! From the personal to the profanely illogical opposition, this states the problem clearly. Let's hope that we figure out in time that free enterprise is only free when it actually is, and act accordingly. I'm ready to divorce this concept from capitalism if that's what it takes to wise up to what it'll take to survive this century.

I'm guessing that this is not the endorsement that you desire (g), but don't take it personally. I appreciate all who aren't afraid to analyse clearly and think with a straight head.

Regards,
Comment by Pedro M Gonzalez on 2010-07-19
Very good Jeff.
Comment by Jim Clements on 2010-07-19
Present nuclear technology is the safest it has ever been. From a purely statistical basis, there have been FAR fewer deaths caused by nuclear power plants than oil drilling and coal mining. What's more, nuclear energy is by far the lowest cost per kw-hr.
Comment by Barry Larkman on 2010-07-19
A little known fact is Biodiesel fuel was first developed in BC Canada as a result of the new Environmental Laws introduced in Canada in the early 80's. Quite by chance the benthic Alpha algae was scooped up in the Pacific Ocean, sparked into life and propagated purely for the cheap production of Biodiesel to power Napier Pacific Plant in Surrey BC
Comment by Bill Reichert on 2010-07-19
Although I broadly agree with the point of this article, part of the reason each side in this discussion gets pissed off with the other is the tendency for each side to spin the numbers. In particular, all the articles about fossil fuel subsidies miss the fact that tax revenues from fossil fuels are greater than the subsidies, including state and federal gas taxes, lease payments, sales taxes, corporate income taxes, etc. Bottom line: On a net taxpayer cash flow basis, it looks like fossil fuels are net revenue generators and alternate fuels are net subsidy recipients. (I'd love for someone to dive into this more deeply and come up with a precise analysis.)

Still, that does not consider the externalities of fossil fuels, including the environmental cost, the military cost, and the economic instability cost. For those reasons, I'm fine compromising my "free market" principles and supporting taxpayer subsidies for alternate fuels.
Comment by BillfromPhilly on 2010-07-19
Your green recommendations have allowed me to target what industries to sell short. I've made a fortune. Please keep up the good work.
Comment by Jane Twitmyer on 2010-07-19
Thanks for the great information!
Comment by Gary Oosta on 2010-07-19
We always talk about alternative energy as though it is light years away from reality, but it is not. In wind power, I find over 14,000 patents. In algal biofuels, it is 8000+ patents. And on and on. We mostly have the technology. Now, we need the will power and a Manhattan project mentality to make it happen.
Comment by Robert Tulip on 2010-07-20
Hi Jeff
I really enjoy your analysis, and agree with your view that a free market can deliver sustainable energy solutions.

My interest is in large scale ocean based algae production,
Regards
Comment by VALSA K P KARUNAN on 2010-07-20

Whoa! What a welcome sane, sage and grounded view in an otherwise maddening environment.

I salute you: keep these invaluable facts/truths coming, loud and clear -- I for one now get fresh hope for a more
livable world :)

valsa
Comment by Robert Tulip on 2010-07-20
Hi Jeff
I really enjoy your analysis, and agree with your view that a free market can deliver sustainable energy solutions.

My interest is in large scale ocean based algae production, as described at
http://rtulip.net/ocean_based_algae_production_system_provisional_patent
Regards
Comment by Hazel Henderson on 2010-07-20
Hi Jeff: Thanks for mentioning TEEB . It's great stuff and we are in touch with its director Pavan Sukhdev.
For other errors in GDP go to www.beyond-gdp.eu I was on the organizing committee for this conf. in the EuroParliament and our company, Ethical Markets Media(USA and Brazil) funded its Survey in 10 countries with London's Globescan ( results at www.globescan.com or www.ethicalmarkets.com ) And, check out our GREEN TRANSITION SCOREBOARD(TM) !

I've been a green private investor for decades and enjoy Green Chip Stocks, thanks , Hazel
Comment by Yuri on 2010-07-20
Nothing wrong with cooperating with tree-huggers. That's the great thing about alternative energy. It brings everyone from treehuggers, to national security nuts, to scientists, and people just looking to make a buck into one boat.

What's more solar energy can be used in pv form to bring electricity individually to homes. This is valuable in third world, because a poor society does not have to spend all its money on building a coal plant and continue spending money to fuel. Afterall, the sun is free.
Comment by Philip D. Leiserson on 2010-07-20
Real costs may never be known. Valdez costs presumably were shared by owners and ratepayers. But when does it stop? Unless the figures are advertised, we are probably still paying for Valdez, maybe forever?
Comment by Yuri on 2010-07-20
Nothing wrong with cooperating with tree-huggers. That's the great thing about alternative energy. It brings everyone from treehuggers, to national security nuts, to scientists, and people just looking to make a buck into one boat.

What's more solar energy can be used in pv form to bring electricity individually to homes. This is valuable in third world, because a poor society does not have to spend all its money on building a coal plant and continue spending money to fuel. Afterall, the sun is free.
Comment by Tom D Stevens on 2010-07-22
Hi, Jeff!
I'm with you. Too many incentives are hard to follow. I'll probably have some disgruntled clients who will miss some of them. Just get me a 100% loan for my customers' installation of a 5kW system costing $7500. Don't fund my startup, don't give me incentives to launch my biz; just give loans to the customers!! how easy is that??
Keep up the good work.
Regards, Tom
Comment by Tom D Stevens on 2010-07-22
Hi, Jeff!
For the next 10 years I'll be building my biz, then holding steady for the next 50 years until all 2 billion families have my energy system. At 5kW per family, that's 166 megaWatts of power installed every year. Of course if you include IC&I, 4x that. The total is 40 teraWatts. This system uses no fossil or biofuels, needs no grid & produces clean hot distilled water. After using the heat for the building, you can drink it, and use it in your vehicle as fuel. Do you need anything else?
Regards, Tom
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