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Why We Have Been and Will Continue to Be Bullish on Chinese Solar Firms

Green Chip's Weekend Edition

By Nick Hodge
Sunday, March 7th, 2010

Welcome to the Green Chip Review Weekend Edition — our insights from the week in everything alternative and cleantech, as well as links to our most-read Green Chip Review and sister publication articles.


As always, it was a busy week for cleantech news. But above all else, we finally got a week that looked like this for nearly all green sectors:


Weekend 3-06-10

Industries represented in that chart include wind, water, solar and smart grid — each up 10% or more for the week buoyed mostly by news originating outside the United States.

Over the past few months, we couldn't have made clearer how bullish we are on Chinese solar firms. We laid out the reasons time and time again... German subsidy cuts pushing first half demand; falling polysilicon costs; high volume on shipment to multiple markets.

Lazard Capital joined the party this week, with one of its analysts saying, "We expect strong 4Q09 earnings across our coverage universe, driven by potential for higher shipments resulting from the demand pull in Germany, along with modestly lower pricing and declining silicon costs." Canadian Solar (NASDAQ: CSIQ), Renesola (NYSE: SOL), and Yingli (NYSE: YGE) were mentioned by name.

You can see how Canadian Solar did this week in the chart above. Yingli reports on Monday morning. We're expecting good performance from the entire group for at least the first half of the year.

This week, Germany made official its solar subsidy cuts, giving some firm guidance to the industry and probably creating a bit more business from China for those waiting for the official announcement.

And China had some news of its own...

Environment Minister Pan Yue said the country is studying ways to implement a new carbon tax.

Battery-maker BYD (HK: 1211) partnered with Daimler (NYSE: DAI) to jointly develop an electric vehicle for the Chinese market.

And the head of China's National Energy Administration told China Daily his office has drafted a 10-year plan calling for 15% renewable by 2020. (I shouldn't have to remind you that the U.S. still has no national policy for renewable energy integration.)

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Some brutally honest declarations followed here in the States...

John Doerr, the billionaire investor behind Kleiner Perkins — the venture capital firm that brought us the Bloom Box — said that China is squarely winning the clean energy race. His message was clear: "My conclusion is China is winning. My conclusion is that we are barely in the race today. China's growth in renewables is astounding. The results of their policies are really staggering."

And during a talk in New York about the Clinton Climate Initiative, the former president noted that "China's support for wind and solar will surpass that of the U.S."

In many ways, it already is. Reuters reported earlier this week:

China grew its market share in the solar industry to nearly 50 percent in the fourth quarter of last year from just 2 percent three years earlier. The United States, on the other hand, went from 43 percent to 16 percent in the same period.

China has also pushed ahead fast in developing wind power. It overtook the United States in new installations and in manufacturing of wind turbines last year, nearly doubling its wind generation capacity from 12,100 megawatts in 2008 to 25,100 megawatts at the end of 2009.

Meanwhile, Congress continued the stalemate on domestic soil. Senator Lindsey Graham declared "cap-and-trade bill in the House and Senate are dead." And Senator John Rockefeller introduced legislation that would delay for two years the Environmental Protection Agency from regulating carbon dioxide emissions.

In ten years, these will be the same guys wondering why we're dependent on Chinese wind turbines and solar panels.

Call it like you see it,

Nick Hodge

Nick

P.S. In case you missed any of this week's Green Chip articles — along with popular stories from our sister publications — you can catch up on them now...

British Columbia Power Costs to Increase: Canadian Utilities Struggle with Demand Trends
Editor Sam Hopkins sees through the Olympic afterglow to Vancouver's looming power rate increases and energy upheaval.

Pickens Plan — Game Back On: Billionaire Back to Backing Wind
Green Chip Editor Nick Hodge talks about a new Pickens Plan announcement, what it means for the wind industry, and how you can invest.

New Green ATF Seizes Canadian Power Grid: A $30 Mil Market Created Overnight
Green Chip Review reports on the ambitious plans by our neighbors to the north as BC Energy Plan outlines 55 green policy actions to be executed between now and 2016 — and how readers can make money with the planned economy that pays you. But hurry... only seven days remain to claim 171% gains.

A Solution to the Coming Energy Crisis?: The Latest News in Nuclear
Short of nuclear fusion — still decades away — this discovery could prove to be the greatest advancement to the world's energy crisis in 50 years! Green Chip reveals the company with the worldwide monopoly on this monster metal — and why you should buy this stock while it's still selling for less than 20 cents.

Residential Solar Installers: Rooftop Solar in for a Boost
Green Chip's Nick Hodge discusses the residential solar boom in California and elsewhere... and the one company poised to take advantage.

Cash for Caulkers: Is It Worth It?
Editor Jeff Siegel takes a look at the new Cash for Caulkers program as President Obama outlines incentives this week in Washington.

Desalination Companies as an Energy Play: The Commodity All Energy Technologies Need
Energy & Capital Editor Nick Hodge exposes water as an overlooked play in the energy space and offers an easy way to start investing.


Editor's Note: From solar and wind to geothermal and biofuels, Green Chip readers want to know which renewable energy resource will take over where fossil fuels leave off. The answer is...all of the above!

There is no one single solution to today's energy crisis. However, the combination of all viable renewable energy resources, coupled with energy efficiency, conservation and smart grid development will not only lead us to energy independence and a cleaner, more sustainable energy infrastructure — but also to what will soon prove to be the greatest investment opportunity of the 21st Century.





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Comments:

Comment by jaime P, Imbat on 2010-03-07
The trend is as we observe energy development is only on the power sector. How do we cut CO2 emission on factories using coal. Is there some other ways.